Hardware Vendors - What Business Are You In, Really?

Third-quarter server sales figures are coming in thiscompanies went under as new, more efficient modes
week and, not surprisingly, the numbers aren't good.of transportation were developed. What the railroad
IDC reports the worldwide market declining a painfulmagnates failed to ask themselves at the time was
5.2 percent year-on-year, down to $12.6 billion - thewhether they were actually in the railroad business,
biggest fall-off since 2002. Volume systems droppedor in the transportation business. If they had
7.2 percent and midrange fell by 9.5 percent, althoughanswered the latter, they would have shifted their
high-end systems grew by 4 percent.resources to take advantage of the newer
It seems that the industry not only has to contendtechnologies. Cable operators decided they were
with a faltering economy but a more fundamentaltelecommunications providers at heart, and have
drop-off in the need for new hardware. Blame thebeen at least marginally successful at transitioning into
usual suspects - virtualization, consolidation - for thenew forms of communication.
latter trend, which would indicate that, even after theI suggest that just such a moment is approaching for
current downturn is spent, we're never going to seethe hardware industry. The question to IBM, HP, Dell
hardware shipments like the 1990s again.and the rest is this: Are you in the server/storage
This leaves the major manufacturers in a difficult, butbusiness, or are you in the enterprise/data center
not impossible situation. IBM still held the top spot inbusiness? In his most recent post on Intelligent
Gartner's view, its 30.3 percent market share justEnterprise, David Linthicum wonders how IBM will
edging out Hewlett-Packard at 29.8 percent. Still, thatbalance its pursuit of a cloud strategy with its need
represents a loss in server revenue for Big Blue ofto sell enterprise hardware and software. I'm sure
about $3.86 billion. Ouch.IBM has its own answer, but mine is: It won't.
So, what's a hardware company to do? More than aIf the company is smart, it will recognize that
decade ago, when I was covering the cable TVincreased reliance on clouds and other
industry (I know, I've had a varied journalistic career.service-oriented schemes will eat into its hardware
But hey, I go where the money is), the big threatrevenues. And that's OK, because at least the
was encroachment into the video distribution gamecompany is staking a claim on the future, rather than
by telecom and satellite providers. In response, thefighting a losing battle by clinging to the past.
leading cable operators decided that turnabout wasAnd the beauty of it is, there will always be a need
fair play, and they moved into broadband data, voicefor hardware, and in the future, that demand will
and professional business services. Some of themmost likely come from the cloud providers that IBM
even offer wireless now.and others are fostering now. Older technologies
The analogy for the business lesson they wererarely go away forever. They just might not be as
employing actually came from about 100 years earlierdominant as they once were.
- the old railroad days. It was noted that the railroadAfter all, we have high-tech telecommunications
industry collapsed and many seemingly invincibletoday, but we also have railroads.